《光伏展会「人少」——一个70后睇到嘅5个信号》Fewer Crowds at the Solar Fair: 5 Signals a 70s Veteran Sees

A friend went to the 18th World Solar Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Expo (PV Guangzhou 2026) today and came back saying: "It is a big show, but it felt empty."

I went straight to the numbers — and the answer is clear enough: domestic installations in the first half of the year were 86.2 GW (down 61% year on year), the main supply chain has lost money for 11 straight quarters, and the sector's net profit was -10.476 billion yuan. The show covers 180,000 square metres with over 2,000 exhibitors, and the organisers say 130,000 visitors came on day one.

The official data and what my friend saw on the floor point to the same conclusion: in 2026 the solar industry has entered a deep correction.

AI-assisted illustration (Z-Image-Turbo)

1. My friend's "empty" is really five signals

Signal 1: fewer people walking the floor

Direct evidence that the industry is quiet: the domestic market is shrinking and exhibitor quality is uneven. It is not an illusion — the data backs it up.

Signal 2: more overseas buyers

With the domestic market shrinking, exhibitors are turning to exports and focusing on international buyers instead of local walk-in traffic. There is too much capacity at home; overseas is the way out.

Signal 3: quiet booths

Some exhibitors are tight on budget, so the booth design is simpler and there are fewer sales staff. Fewer people are willing to spend, which tells you the whole trade is turning off the tap.

AI-assisted illustration (Z-Image-Turbo)

Signal 4: the industry consensus has changed

A net loss of 10.476 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, 11 quarters of losses in a row, and "anti-involution" policy pushing the shakeout. It used to be a race for scale; now it is a race to see who survives.

Signal 5: a shortage peak in 2027

Memory prices are up five to seven times, power supply is the bottleneck, and storage plus AI is the next wave. Solar falls, storage rises — that handover matters.

2. The knock-on effects for AI compute

Solar looks unrelated to AI compute, but the three lines are actually tied tight. First, the power bottleneck: solar is one of the power sources for AI data centres, so a shrinking solar sector means tighter power and rising compute power costs. Second, the storage opportunity: solar falls and storage rises, and storage plus AI data centres is a golden combination. Third, the export shift: domestic overcapacity against growing demand in Europe, America and Southeast Asia means an opening for cross-border e-commerce.

AI-assisted illustration (Z-Image-Turbo)

3. What it means for Hany's business specifically

On AI compute, rising power costs push total server cost up 5 to 10 per cent, so site selection has to move towards regions with plenty of power, and pairing with storage is an opportunity. On cross-border e-commerce, solar exports and good suppliers are concentrated, which makes product selection clearer. For young people investing, avoid solar manufacturing and obsolete capacity, and look at storage plus AI, new technology and overseas markets.

AI-assisted illustration (Z-Image-Turbo)

4. A 70s veteran's philosophy of watching an industry

Our generation has done 26 years in trade and seen plenty of cycles: masks spiking then glutting after SARS in 2003; the 2008 financial crisis, slow to recover and quick to shake out; Japanese electronic components tripling for a while after the 2011 earthquake; IC shortages pushing prices up five times in the 2020 pandemic; and now solar plus AI entering a bottoming-out and shakeout phase in 2026.

Every industry bottom is a redistribution of opportunity: good companies survive and take share, newcomers find a difference, and crossover businesses open new water.

5. Hany's advice

For investors: avoid solar manufacturing for the next year or so, look at storage plus AI compute over three years, and look at new energy plus new technology over five years and beyond. For people working in the trade: move from solar manufacturing to storage plus AI, from low end to high end plus export, and team up with good companies. For my friend: keep both the show-floor impression and the industry data in view, do not rush into investment short term, look at storage in the medium term, and look at new technology long term. In this era, knowing how to avoid risk matters more than knowing how to grab opportunity.

My friend's impression of an "empty" show is not an illusion; it is the real signal from the industry. Solar enters a deep correction in 2026, but every correction is a redistribution of opportunity. The crossing point of storage and AI is the biggest opportunity of the next ten years. Our generation has gone from electronics to AI compute and watched every turn. So — are you ready?

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Sources: CNR report of 17 September, CFM flash memory market, the national "anti-involution" policy, and PV Guangzhou 2026 show data.